Predicting Economic Outcomes with MMT & Minsky | The Interview | Real Vision™
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In this timely and high-level
In this timely and high-level conversation, Srinivas Thiruvadanthai, the director of research at the Jerome Levy Forecasting Center, speaks with Michael Green of Thiel Macro to discuss the fiscal and monetary outlook. Thiruvadanthai explains how he uses the economic thinking of Michal Kalecki and Hyman Minsky, as well as modern monetary theory, to forecast corporate profits. He also expounds on why demographic factors are driving inflation down and forcing the Fed to react, with severe consequences for asset prices and wages. Filmed in February 27, 2019 in New York.
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Unfiltered, long-form deep dives with the most successful investors in
the world. In discussions across a range of subjects, we dig into the minds of the sharpest investors to find out what makes them tick. If you’ve ever wanted to learn from the best, this series is where to go.
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Predicting Economic Outcomes with MMT & Minsky | The Interview | Real Vision™
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Transcript:
You see the number of forms with negative profits. Of course, there's biotech in there, so there is some element of that. But still, it is cyclically grown. But on a secular basis, if you look at it, the number of firms with negative profits that managed to survive-- and people call them zombie-- I wouldn't necessarily call them zombie-- but managed to survive has actually gone up over the last 30 years.
The problem with doing that, though, is when you run massive fiscal deficits but you don't constrain the private sector, there is a natural inducement to expand balance sheets again. And there may be people who tell you inflation is the constraint. The key issue really is, which nobody really talks about, is we don't really trust you guys that you will really care about inflation.
I'm here in New York City sitting down with Sri Thiruvadanthai. To Sri is with the Jacob Levy Forecasting Center, and is one of the leading experts on the Kalecki equation and the interaction across sectors in an economy-- corporate, household, et cetera. We're going to talk about the current environment, how he's thinking about some of the Fed changes in terms of their policy articulations, and a more global picture in terms of the dynamic of policy choices like MMT, household, and corporate indebtedness. And I'm really interested to see how he puts the pieces together.
Mike Green here for Real Vision with Sri Thiruvadanthai. Sri is with the Levy Forecasting Center. And you and I know each other primarily through Twitter, which is an increasingly interesting forum for smart people to exchange thoughts in the finance world that's kind of outside of the traditional framework of Bloomberg chatrooms, et cetera. And so I've really gotten the chance to enjoy your thinking and get to know you a little bit better. We've communicated outside of that as well. But I wanted to take the chance to introduce you to the Real Vision audience.
Your Twitter handle is @teasri, T-E-A-S-R-I, teasri. And your primary focus with the Levy Forecasting Center is it using things like the Kalecki equation to think about the dynamics of global macro economy. Give me a little bit of your background. So you originally came from India.
Right. And so I came from India, I got my undergraduate in engineering. And I never worked in engineering. And then I did my MBA from IIMA. And I worked in ICICI, which is now a bank. At that time, it was an industrial credit corporation, basically extending industrial loans, seven to 10 year type loans, for Greenfield projects. But also, sometimes Brownfield expansion projects. Worked there for three years before I came here for grad school in Washington University, where Minsky used to be there, but he had left by the time I had I joined that.
Watch more Real Vision™ videos: http://po.st/RealVisionVideos
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Watch the full video by starting your 14-day free trial here: https://rvtv.io/2JoYmrP
About The Interview:
Unfiltered, long-form deep dives with the most successful investors in
the world. In discussions across a range of subjects, we dig into the minds of the sharpest investors to find out what makes them tick. If you’ve ever wanted to learn from the best, this series is where to go.
About Real Vision™:
Real Vision™ is the destination for the world’s most successful investors to share their thoughts about what’s happening in today's markets. Think: TED Talks for Finance. On Real Vision™ you get exclusive access to watch the most successful investors, hedge fund managers and traders who share their frank and in-depth investment insights with no agenda, hype or bias. Make smart investment decisions and grow your portfolio with original content brought to you by the biggest names in finance, who get to say what they really think on Real Vision™.
Connect with Real Vision™ Online:
Twitter: https://rvtv.io/2p5PrhJ
Instagram: https://rvtv.io/2J7Ddlw
Facebook: https://rvtv.io/2NNOlmu
Linkedin: https://rvtv.io/2xbskqx
Predicting Economic Outcomes with MMT & Minsky | The Interview | Real Vision™
realvisiontelevision
Transcript:
You see the number of forms with negative profits. Of course, there's biotech in there, so there is some element of that. But still, it is cyclically grown. But on a secular basis, if you look at it, the number of firms with negative profits that managed to survive-- and people call them zombie-- I wouldn't necessarily call them zombie-- but managed to survive has actually gone up over the last 30 years.
The problem with doing that, though, is when you run massive fiscal deficits but you don't constrain the private sector, there is a natural inducement to expand balance sheets again. And there may be people who tell you inflation is the constraint. The key issue really is, which nobody really talks about, is we don't really trust you guys that you will really care about inflation.
I'm here in New York City sitting down with Sri Thiruvadanthai. To Sri is with the Jacob Levy Forecasting Center, and is one of the leading experts on the Kalecki equation and the interaction across sectors in an economy-- corporate, household, et cetera. We're going to talk about the current environment, how he's thinking about some of the Fed changes in terms of their policy articulations, and a more global picture in terms of the dynamic of policy choices like MMT, household, and corporate indebtedness. And I'm really interested to see how he puts the pieces together.
Mike Green here for Real Vision with Sri Thiruvadanthai. Sri is with the Levy Forecasting Center. And you and I know each other primarily through Twitter, which is an increasingly interesting forum for smart people to exchange thoughts in the finance world that's kind of outside of the traditional framework of Bloomberg chatrooms, et cetera. And so I've really gotten the chance to enjoy your thinking and get to know you a little bit better. We've communicated outside of that as well. But I wanted to take the chance to introduce you to the Real Vision audience.
Your Twitter handle is @teasri, T-E-A-S-R-I, teasri. And your primary focus with the Levy Forecasting Center is it using things like the Kalecki equation to think about the dynamics of global macro economy. Give me a little bit of your background. So you originally came from India.
Right. And so I came from India, I got my undergraduate in engineering. And I never worked in engineering. And then I did my MBA from IIMA. And I worked in ICICI, which is now a bank. At that time, it was an industrial credit corporation, basically extending industrial loans, seven to 10 year type loans, for Greenfield projects. But also, sometimes Brownfield expansion projects. Worked there for three years before I came here for grad school in Washington University, where Minsky used to be there, but he had left by the time I had I joined that.
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