Predicting the future: A lecture by Philip Tetlock

American Enterprise Institute
American Enterprise Institute
33.7 هزار بار بازدید - 9 سال پیش - The University of Pennsylvania’s Philip
The University of Pennsylvania’s Philip Tetlock has made the study of prediction his life’s work. For nearly three decades, he has written extensively on the ideas and methods that produce successful forecasts. In their new book, “Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction” (Crown, 2015), he and Dan Gardner look at the rare “superforecaster” and how their approaches can gauge the likelihood of events: When will North Korea next test a nuclear weapon? Will the eurozone collapse within five years? Will Carly Fiorina win New Hampshire?

In this season of nonstop political prediction, Dr. Tetlock, a master of applied social science, will visit AEI to discuss his lessons for making predictions — lessons that have radical implications for politics, policy, technology, journalism, and education.

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9 سال پیش در تاریخ 1394/07/27 منتشر شده است.
33,722 بـار بازدید شده
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