Calling Russia's nuclear bluff - Russian nuclear doctrine & the Ukraine war
684.5 هزار بار بازدید -
2 سال پیش
-
I survived COVID, let's talk
I survived COVID, let's talk about nuclear war.
Russia's nuclear threats, and warnings of potential nuclear war growing out of the Ukraine invasion, make for great headlines - but how much substance actually sits behind those threats?
Nothing triggers fear quite like the prospect of a world ending nuclear exchange, but that doesn't make the hype true. While we can't relax entirely (the risk isn't zero), I think we can afford to stop hyping the risk of WWIII quite so much, at least for now. So if you'd like some reverse clickbait where I explain why you probably shouldn't be that afraid, let's get into it.
In this video, I take a look at what Russia's been doing that has caused so much concern around the world, both in terms of demonstrating new weapons and issuing warnings and threats. Then I dive into Russian doctrine around nuclear weapons use, as well as the reality of the nuclear taboo, in order to determine how great the actual threat of Russian nuclear weapon use is.
Finally, I talk a bit about what other nations can do if they're determined to avoid any breach of the nuclear taboo, and keep Russian warheads locked up in their storage bunkers where they belong.
A caveat as always that I am not a nuclear strategist by trade, but there are a number of good talks and articles out there if you would like to know more. I come at this from the perspective of someone who has studied and written on cold war era.
I rely on a number of documents in this piece, a few key ones are listed below:
US 2018 Nuclear Posture Review
https://media.defense.gov/2018/Feb/02...
The Russian Basic Principles of State Policy of the Russian Federation on Nuclear Deterrence - a number of sites host English translations
I found "Nuclear Signalling Between NATO and Russia" by Rear Admiral John Gower, former Assistant Chief of Defence Staff (Nuclear & Chemical, Biological) to be an easy read among the papers I looked at preparing for this presentation - though admittedly his work predates the 2020 basic principles.
https://www.jstor.org/stable/pdf/resr...
The Perun Gaming Channel (I will aim to start shifting and publishing new content there this weekend):
@perungamingau
Patreon:
Patreon: PerunAU
Timestamps:
00:00 Introduction
01:02 Nukes and the media
02:09 But hold up a moment
02:28 What am I going to cover?
03:33 TLDR
04:40 Caveats
05:28 WHAT IS RUSSIA DOING?
05:34 Capability demonstration
06:21 Rhetoric
07:10 Capability development
10:21 So who is the audience?
11:50 DOES NUCLEAR COERCION WORK?
12:02 Historically? No
14:30 Nuclear taboo
16:34 A simple example
18:59 RUSSIAN NUCLEAR DOCTRINE
19:08 Doctrine and declaratory strategy
20:03 Why should we care?
21:34 Lavrov quote
21:58 Putin the nuclear warmonger?
25:32 Historical perspective
28:17 The 2020 statement
29:39 The four reasons
32:11 "Escalate to de-escalate"
33:48 SO WILL THEY USE NUKES?
34:10 No doctrinal use case
35:03 Russian media control to the rescue
36:15 No military utility
37:14 Likely response
39:24 WHEN MIGHT NUKES BE USED?
39:39 Nuclear use case?
42:03 HOW DO YOU PREVENT USE?
42:11 Signal and deter
44:30 KEY TAKEAWAYS
47:33 CHANNEL UPDATE
Russia's nuclear threats, and warnings of potential nuclear war growing out of the Ukraine invasion, make for great headlines - but how much substance actually sits behind those threats?
Nothing triggers fear quite like the prospect of a world ending nuclear exchange, but that doesn't make the hype true. While we can't relax entirely (the risk isn't zero), I think we can afford to stop hyping the risk of WWIII quite so much, at least for now. So if you'd like some reverse clickbait where I explain why you probably shouldn't be that afraid, let's get into it.
In this video, I take a look at what Russia's been doing that has caused so much concern around the world, both in terms of demonstrating new weapons and issuing warnings and threats. Then I dive into Russian doctrine around nuclear weapons use, as well as the reality of the nuclear taboo, in order to determine how great the actual threat of Russian nuclear weapon use is.
Finally, I talk a bit about what other nations can do if they're determined to avoid any breach of the nuclear taboo, and keep Russian warheads locked up in their storage bunkers where they belong.
A caveat as always that I am not a nuclear strategist by trade, but there are a number of good talks and articles out there if you would like to know more. I come at this from the perspective of someone who has studied and written on cold war era.
I rely on a number of documents in this piece, a few key ones are listed below:
US 2018 Nuclear Posture Review
https://media.defense.gov/2018/Feb/02...
The Russian Basic Principles of State Policy of the Russian Federation on Nuclear Deterrence - a number of sites host English translations
I found "Nuclear Signalling Between NATO and Russia" by Rear Admiral John Gower, former Assistant Chief of Defence Staff (Nuclear & Chemical, Biological) to be an easy read among the papers I looked at preparing for this presentation - though admittedly his work predates the 2020 basic principles.
https://www.jstor.org/stable/pdf/resr...
The Perun Gaming Channel (I will aim to start shifting and publishing new content there this weekend):
@perungamingau
Patreon:
Patreon: PerunAU
Timestamps:
00:00 Introduction
01:02 Nukes and the media
02:09 But hold up a moment
02:28 What am I going to cover?
03:33 TLDR
04:40 Caveats
05:28 WHAT IS RUSSIA DOING?
05:34 Capability demonstration
06:21 Rhetoric
07:10 Capability development
10:21 So who is the audience?
11:50 DOES NUCLEAR COERCION WORK?
12:02 Historically? No
14:30 Nuclear taboo
16:34 A simple example
18:59 RUSSIAN NUCLEAR DOCTRINE
19:08 Doctrine and declaratory strategy
20:03 Why should we care?
21:34 Lavrov quote
21:58 Putin the nuclear warmonger?
25:32 Historical perspective
28:17 The 2020 statement
29:39 The four reasons
32:11 "Escalate to de-escalate"
33:48 SO WILL THEY USE NUKES?
34:10 No doctrinal use case
35:03 Russian media control to the rescue
36:15 No military utility
37:14 Likely response
39:24 WHEN MIGHT NUKES BE USED?
39:39 Nuclear use case?
42:03 HOW DO YOU PREVENT USE?
42:11 Signal and deter
44:30 KEY TAKEAWAYS
47:33 CHANNEL UPDATE
2 سال پیش
در تاریخ 1401/02/13 منتشر شده
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