The Clutch GOAT...(it's not who you think).
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Who is the most clutch
Who is the most clutch shooter of all time?
To understand this, we need to first define what clutch is…
Clutch is a vague term - so I worked with Mike Beuoy to build out multiple charts, and variations of “clutch”.
Keep in mind, advanced stats didn’t start in the NBA until 1996, so it’s difficult to go further back than this…
The NBA defines clutch as a five-point game with five minutes left in the game. There is nothing inherently wrong with the NBA's definition of clutch performance. There's something to be said for easily applicable rules that are simple to explain. However, a shot taken in the final minute when your team is up by five doesn't feel quite as "clutch" as a three-pointer in the final 10 seconds with your team trailing by two. Fortunately, we can use win probability to create a more nuanced version of the clutch, and one that better aligns with what one would expect a clutch situation to be.
Definition of “Clutch ^2”(aka “clutch squared” ) - a win probability added (WPA) model that weights the importance of shots based on time and score.
At its core, a clutch shot is one in which the outcome of the shot matters; when there is a significant difference between a make and a miss. How do we quantify that difference? For every shot taken, we can calculate the win probability for both a make or a miss. The win probability difference between the two potential outcomes, the "swing" factor, tells you how important the shot is. A shot as time expires when trailing by one will leave the team with a win probability of 100% if successful, and 0% if unsuccessful - a maximum swing of 100%.
At the opposite end of the spectrum, we have garbage time. If a team is up by 20 with 2 minutes to go (or down by 20 for that matter), a shot will not move the win probability needle, regardless of the shot's outcome. Thus, these shots do not alter a player's “Clutch Squared”.
I will look to add further detail to this description as time goes on...hope you enjoy!
00:00 Defining Clutch
02:15 The GOAT...?
05:55 Anti-Clutch
06:20 Further Into the Clutch...
12:15 Mapping "All-Around Clutch"
15:10 What Can We Learn...?
To understand this, we need to first define what clutch is…
Clutch is a vague term - so I worked with Mike Beuoy to build out multiple charts, and variations of “clutch”.
Keep in mind, advanced stats didn’t start in the NBA until 1996, so it’s difficult to go further back than this…
The NBA defines clutch as a five-point game with five minutes left in the game. There is nothing inherently wrong with the NBA's definition of clutch performance. There's something to be said for easily applicable rules that are simple to explain. However, a shot taken in the final minute when your team is up by five doesn't feel quite as "clutch" as a three-pointer in the final 10 seconds with your team trailing by two. Fortunately, we can use win probability to create a more nuanced version of the clutch, and one that better aligns with what one would expect a clutch situation to be.
Definition of “Clutch ^2”(aka “clutch squared” ) - a win probability added (WPA) model that weights the importance of shots based on time and score.
At its core, a clutch shot is one in which the outcome of the shot matters; when there is a significant difference between a make and a miss. How do we quantify that difference? For every shot taken, we can calculate the win probability for both a make or a miss. The win probability difference between the two potential outcomes, the "swing" factor, tells you how important the shot is. A shot as time expires when trailing by one will leave the team with a win probability of 100% if successful, and 0% if unsuccessful - a maximum swing of 100%.
At the opposite end of the spectrum, we have garbage time. If a team is up by 20 with 2 minutes to go (or down by 20 for that matter), a shot will not move the win probability needle, regardless of the shot's outcome. Thus, these shots do not alter a player's “Clutch Squared”.
I will look to add further detail to this description as time goes on...hope you enjoy!
00:00 Defining Clutch
02:15 The GOAT...?
05:55 Anti-Clutch
06:20 Further Into the Clutch...
12:15 Mapping "All-Around Clutch"
15:10 What Can We Learn...?
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