What if Iran Gets the Bomb?

The Biden administration, along with outside experts, assesses that Iran could build a nuclear weapon very quickly — if chose to do so. Whether and under what conditions Iran would cross the line is unknown. Equally unclear is how Tehran would integrate a nuclear weapons capability into its over all security strategy. What would Iran’s leaders believe nuclear weapons would do for them? And how would they wield them? These uncertainties are compounded by unknowns regarding the reactions of regional states, especially Israel and Saudi Arabia, and powerful global players, including the United States. At a moment when Iran and Israel have attacked each other’s territory with ballistic missiles, these questions are more than just thought exercises. And the implications go beyond the Middle East as states under the shadow of perceived aggressors contemplate building nuclear weapons themselves. Their calculations will be shaped by an Iranian decision to build a bomb and the international response to it. The Quincy Institute assembled a panel of distinguished experts to begin a discussion of these issues, as Republican and Democratic presidential contenders begin to puzzle through their own positions toward this contingency. It will feature Steven Miller, director of the International Security Program at the Harvard Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs, Ellen Laipson, director of the Master’s in International Security degree program at George Mason University, Barbara Slavin, distinguished fellow at the Stimson Center, and Gary Samore, director of Middle East Studies at Brandeis University. Steven Simon, senior research fellow at the Quincy Institute, moderated. Download the full webinar transcript here: quincyinst.s3.amazonaws.com/wp-content/uploads/202…