IS CHESS A GAME OF CHANCE? Classical vs Frequentist vs Bayesian Probability
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3 سال پیش
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Learn more about probability -
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What, exactly, is probability? In this video we will see a few different perspectives on chance, the classical or a priori viewpoint, the frequentist or empirical viewpoint, and finally the Bayesian or subjective viewpoint. We're even going to consider the game of chess, what appears to be overwhelmingly a game of skill, but which the limits of our bounded rationality still results in probabilistic elements.
0:00 Intro to Probability
0:50 Classical Probability
2:09 Frequentist Probability
5:18 Bayesian Probability
7:14 Is Chess a game of chance?
11:05 Underestimate the role of chance
11:47 Brilliant.org/treforbazett
Classical Probability: This is when we have a finite set of equally likely possibilities, and thus the probability of an event A is just the number of times A occurs out of all the possibilities. This is great when we know everything about a situation like a normal deck of cards.
Frequentist Probability: This is when we do emperical studies and see how frequently event A occurs, particularly in the limit as we do a large number of studies. This is great when we don't know a priori exactly what is going on like some deck with an unknown number of cards removed, but the downside is we need to be able to do a large number of trials.
Bayesian Probability: This is when we begin with a prior probability and when we gain new information we update our worldview (often using Bayes' Theorem) to get a posterior probability. This viewpoint is subjective because you and I may get different results given different information and different even if we had the same prior probability.
COURSE PLAYLISTS:
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► CALCULUS II: Calculus II (Integration Methods, Ser...
►MULTIVARIABLE CALCULUS (Calc III): Calculus III: Multivariable Calculus ...
►VECTOR CALCULUS (Calc IV) Calculus IV: Vector Calculus (Line In...
►DIFFERENTIAL EQUATIONS: Ordinary Differential Equations (ODEs)
►LAPLACE TRANSFORM: Laplace Transforms and Solving ODEs
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Check out my MATH MERCH line in collaboration with Beautiful Equations
►https://www.beautifulequation.com/pag...
What, exactly, is probability? In this video we will see a few different perspectives on chance, the classical or a priori viewpoint, the frequentist or empirical viewpoint, and finally the Bayesian or subjective viewpoint. We're even going to consider the game of chess, what appears to be overwhelmingly a game of skill, but which the limits of our bounded rationality still results in probabilistic elements.
0:00 Intro to Probability
0:50 Classical Probability
2:09 Frequentist Probability
5:18 Bayesian Probability
7:14 Is Chess a game of chance?
11:05 Underestimate the role of chance
11:47 Brilliant.org/treforbazett
Classical Probability: This is when we have a finite set of equally likely possibilities, and thus the probability of an event A is just the number of times A occurs out of all the possibilities. This is great when we know everything about a situation like a normal deck of cards.
Frequentist Probability: This is when we do emperical studies and see how frequently event A occurs, particularly in the limit as we do a large number of studies. This is great when we don't know a priori exactly what is going on like some deck with an unknown number of cards removed, but the downside is we need to be able to do a large number of trials.
Bayesian Probability: This is when we begin with a prior probability and when we gain new information we update our worldview (often using Bayes' Theorem) to get a posterior probability. This viewpoint is subjective because you and I may get different results given different information and different even if we had the same prior probability.
COURSE PLAYLISTS:
►DISCRETE MATH: Discrete Math (Full Course: Sets, Log...
►LINEAR ALGEBRA: Linear Algebra (Full Course)
►CALCULUS I: Calculus I (Limits, Derivative, Integ...
► CALCULUS II: Calculus II (Integration Methods, Ser...
►MULTIVARIABLE CALCULUS (Calc III): Calculus III: Multivariable Calculus ...
►VECTOR CALCULUS (Calc IV) Calculus IV: Vector Calculus (Line In...
►DIFFERENTIAL EQUATIONS: Ordinary Differential Equations (ODEs)
►LAPLACE TRANSFORM: Laplace Transforms and Solving ODEs
►GAME THEORY: Game Theory
OTHER PLAYLISTS:
► Learning Math Series
5 Tips To Make Math Practice Problems...
►Cool Math Series:
Cool Math Series
BECOME A MEMBER:
►Join: @drtrefor
MATH BOOKS & MERCH I LOVE:
► My Amazon Affiliate Shop: https://www.amazon.com/shop/treforbazett
SOCIALS:
►Twitter (math based): Twitter: treforbazett
►Instagram (photography based): Instagram: treforphotography
3 سال پیش
در تاریخ 1400/09/03 منتشر شده
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