UK analyst on expected Ukraine counteroffensive

(5 Jun 2023) RESTRICTION SUMMARY: ASSOCIATED PRESS Newbury - 5 June 2023 1. SOUNDBITE (English) Richard Barrons, co-chair of the U.K.-based strategic consulting firm Universal Defence & Security Solutions: "Russia has had time to lay out a textbook fixed defence. So three lines of trenches, scrapes for tanks to come forward into, to fire from, hold down positions. They will have rehearsed the artillery fire plan in support of defending those lines, and they will have rehearsed the crucial rapid counterattacks which are so vital when you are trying to restore a line that's being attacked." ++BLACK FRAMES++ 2. SOUNDBITE (English) Richard Barrons, co-chair of the U.K.-based strategic consulting firm Universal Defence & Security Solutions: "But the point about the numbers are this is the 900 mile frontline. So they need a lot of people and it looks as if they have streamed the people that they have." ++BLACK FRAMES++ 3. SOUNDBITE (English) Richard Barrons, co-chair of the U.K.-based strategic consulting firm Universal Defence & Security Solutions: "They've also adjusting their tactics based on how the war is. I mean, you'd expect them to learn. So their ability to counter drones and use drones, they've learned to keep their big assets like headquarters and ammunition dumps out of five miles range out of long range precision rocket range. And they have sharpened up how they can fire at Ukrainian artillery and tanks when they when they they spot them." ++BLACK FRAMES++ 4. SOUNDBITE (English) Richard Barrons, co-chair of the U.K.-based strategic consulting firm Universal Defence & Security Solutions: "And so they're going to have to choose. I would think one, two, maybe three places where they concentrate that force to have somewhere between a 3 to 1 and a 7 to 1 advantage over the Russians at that point in order to smash their way through and then exploit what are and hold on to the ground that they've taken. So that means that this offensive is going to be, in a land sense, quite a narrow frontage. I'd be surprised if it's more than 20 miles, to be honest, at least to start with, in order to guarantee success. And then they've got to hold it. So the key point is this offensive has to show some battlefield success. It has to show that Ukraine suitably supported, can defeat the Russians on the battlefield." ++BLACK FRAMES++ 5. SOUNDBITE (English) Richard Barrons, co-chair of the U.K.-based strategic consulting firm Universal Defence & Security Solutions: "Battlefield success has to be enough to show hope and prospect to bind in further strategic support. And to put it another way, if it fails utterly or worse - A Russian, Russia stops it and then mounts a renewed offensive its own, which I think is pretty unlikely given the state of it. Then what? You know, then is it time to settle before it gets worse or a very bad outcome? Is this war coming NATO's way, when nobody wants that, and we're nowhere close to it." ++BLACK FRAMES++ 6. SOUNDBITE (English) Richard Barrons, co-chair of the U.K.-based strategic consulting firm Universal Defence & Security Solutions: "If you're Ukraine and you know you've got to mount this offensive, you're trying to increase the chances of surprise about when you do it, where you do it and how you do it. So they're going to do two things. They're going to sow disinformation, Ukraine, about, you know, when, when and how. So the conversation about we haven't got enough of stuff is pretty much true. But it's also showing a sense that, well, this won't come for a while. So we wouldn't expect Ukraine to make an appointment for this." ++BLACK FRAMES++ Find out more about AP Archive: www.aparchive.com/HowWeWork Twitter: twitter.com/AP_Archive Facebook: www.facebook.com/APArchives ​​ Instagram: www.instagram.com/APNews/ You can license this story through AP Archive: www.aparchive.com/metadata/youtube/3bd365c57f7f439…

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