Why This Curve Predicts Every Recession

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In this video, we explore the historical significance of the 10YR3M spread, highlighting its accuracy in predicting economic downturns. We examine the current yield curve inversion, which is of historic depth, rivaling the double recession of 1980.

While the 10YR3M spread has an impressive forecasting track record, effectively capitalizing on this information requires patience and discipline. We discuss the challenges involved in interpreting the indicator's signals and the wide range of outcomes for recession timing, stock market performance, and labor market data.

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