What is a Black Swan?
9.3 هزار بار بازدید -
4 سال پیش
-
The Black Swan is a
The Black Swan is a book about risk, by polymath, Nassim Nicolas Taleb.
Black Swans risks that meet 3 criteria
1. Outlier - not expected from previous experience
2. Extreme impact
3. Explainable after the fact
You can think of a black swan event as an Unknown Unknown.
However, we do believe we could have predicted it… with hindsight
Taleb gets the name, Black Swan, from a quote from Juvenal:
"rara avis in terris nigroque simillima cygno"
("a rare bird in the lands and very much like a black swan")
Black swan events arise from the limitations of our knowledge. We need to understand this, as part of our understanding of risk management.
Taleb also identifies:
- Grey Swans
Known Unknowns
- White Swans
... such an event has a major effect, but is compatible with statistical properties - it was a Known-Known with low but finite likelihood - indeed some may predict it with high levels of precision.
Recommended Videos.
Carefully curated video recommendations for you:
Our Risk Management Playlist: Project Management: The Definition of...
- What is Project Risk Management?
... What is Project Risk Management? Proj...
- What is the Cone of Uncertainty?
... What is the Cone of Uncertainty? Proj...
- Risk Management - 5 Tips to do it right
... Risk Management - 5 Tips to Do it Right
- Avoid Project Failure: 5 Top Tips
... Avoid Project Failure: 5 Top Tips
For more great Project Management videos, please subscribe to this channel: @onlinepmcourses
For all our great Project Management articles and resources, please check out the OnlinePMCourses website: https://onlinepmcourses.com/
For basic Management Courses - free training hosted on YouTube, with 2 new management lessons a week, check out our sister channel, Management Courses: managementcourses
For more of our Project Management videos in themed collections, join our Free Academy of Project Management: https://onlinepmcourses.com/free-acad...
#RiskManagement #ProjectManagement #BlackSwan
Black Swans risks that meet 3 criteria
1. Outlier - not expected from previous experience
2. Extreme impact
3. Explainable after the fact
You can think of a black swan event as an Unknown Unknown.
However, we do believe we could have predicted it… with hindsight
Taleb gets the name, Black Swan, from a quote from Juvenal:
"rara avis in terris nigroque simillima cygno"
("a rare bird in the lands and very much like a black swan")
Black swan events arise from the limitations of our knowledge. We need to understand this, as part of our understanding of risk management.
Taleb also identifies:
- Grey Swans
Known Unknowns
- White Swans
... such an event has a major effect, but is compatible with statistical properties - it was a Known-Known with low but finite likelihood - indeed some may predict it with high levels of precision.
Recommended Videos.
Carefully curated video recommendations for you:
Our Risk Management Playlist: Project Management: The Definition of...
- What is Project Risk Management?
... What is Project Risk Management? Proj...
- What is the Cone of Uncertainty?
... What is the Cone of Uncertainty? Proj...
- Risk Management - 5 Tips to do it right
... Risk Management - 5 Tips to Do it Right
- Avoid Project Failure: 5 Top Tips
... Avoid Project Failure: 5 Top Tips
For more great Project Management videos, please subscribe to this channel: @onlinepmcourses
For all our great Project Management articles and resources, please check out the OnlinePMCourses website: https://onlinepmcourses.com/
For basic Management Courses - free training hosted on YouTube, with 2 new management lessons a week, check out our sister channel, Management Courses: managementcourses
For more of our Project Management videos in themed collections, join our Free Academy of Project Management: https://onlinepmcourses.com/free-acad...
#RiskManagement #ProjectManagement #BlackSwan
4 سال پیش
در تاریخ 1399/07/09 منتشر شده
است.
9,301
بـار بازدید شده